Prof. Raymond Tanter – ICT’s 12th Annual International Conference

noviembre 21On Tuesday, September 11, 2012, Prof. Raymond Tanter gave a speech at the Center for Performing Arts, Herzliya, Israel.

Prof. Raymond Tanter, President, Iran Policy Committee and Publishing Professor Emeritus, The University of Michigan, Former Senior Staff Member, National Security Council, United States of America

World Summit on Counter-Terrorism: Terrorism’s Global Impact ICT’s 12th Annual International Conference.

To watch the complete speech please go to: http://bit.ly/1uiLb6U

Democratic transition to prevent revolutionary Iran from nuclear-armed status

US-VOTE-2012-DEMOCRATIC CAMPAIGN-OBAMAKey senators in the incoming Republican majority and like-minded Democrats have a vision of Iran as a revolutionary state. It is risky to conduct business as usual with revolutionary Iran. If “regime change from within” were an implicit part of U.S. policy, emergence of a free Iran that does not become a nuclear-armed state is likely. President Barack Obama, however, treats Iran as if it were a normal state to engage in give-and-take bargaining.

Regarding current talks to prevent Iran from getting the bomb, Republican senators believe they have votes from both parties to pass additional economic sanctions on Tehran to overcome a veto by Obama. The White House is on record to avoid congressional scrutiny of any agreement. But a bipartisan coalition could use its majority to compel a vote on any accord from the November 18-24, Vienna talks between the major powers and Iran.

Opposing congressional oversight, supporters of reaching out to Iran say it has not decided whether it is a revolutionary movement or a normal state; hence, U.S. diplomacy can strengthen pragmatists against revolutionaries. This unsuccessful search for a moderate highlights the fallacy of treating Iran as a normal state. Even “pragmatistsaccept rule by Iranian clerics.

Business as usual is consistent with a report that Washington may reestablish an economic-diplomatic presence in Tehran, if there were a positive outcome in Vienna. But expectations are rising that an agreement is likely to be a “bad deal.” If so, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), chair of foreign operations subcommittee of the incoming Appropriations Committee and Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), incoming Foreign Relations Committee chair are cosponsoring a bill intended “to kill” a bad deal, according to Graham.

In addition to being a nuclear threat, Iran may be building missile facilities in Syria to prop up the Assad regime. Such missile production is acclaimed on religious beliefs inherent in the Iranian Revolution: “Today, the Islamic Iran has grown into the world’s sixth missile power and this is a major source of pride for the Revolution,” stated an officer of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). It has enhanced military capabilities in Iraq “to steal the show from Washington,” with a blow by the IRGC to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, (ISIS).

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How to Tell if Tehran Is Lying About Its Nuclear Ambitions

noviembre 11How to counter Iran’s bold cheating on its nuclear commitments? Publicize and act on revelations of mendacity alleged by the Iranian opposition group with a track record of valid revelations – the National of Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) and its office in Washington, NCRIUS.

The narrative of talks between the major powers and Iran focuses on whether Iran will agree to curb uranium enrichment by cutting down on centrifuges in exchange for sanctions relief. But the backstory — Tehran’s serial cheating — should be the front narrative.

Is President Barack Obama hoping for a deal so much that he ignores Iran’s prior record of defiance of its obligations to be transparent? Our president’s desperate October letter to an unresponsive and uncooperative Supreme Leader of Iran signals weakness in face of defiance and cheating is of little consequence.

Doubling down on desperation, Secretary of State John Kerry has lamented how difficult it would be to reach a deal with Iran if negotiations extend beyond the Nov. 24 deadline: “I want to get this done,” he said, reported the Washington Post, “And we are driving toward the finish with a view of trying to get it done.” He has compounded desperation with unfounded optimism about demonstrating Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful, saying, “We believe it is pretty easy to prove to the world that a plan is peaceful.”

But it is difficult for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to verify whether Iran is cheating: IAEA inspectors are not allowed to gain access to a major facility indicating marrying fuel to a delivery system — Parchin — on the grounds it is a military site for conventional weapons research and off-limits to the IAEA.

Recalcitrance has prompted the IAEA regularly to issue statements like: “Since 2002, the Agency has become increasingly concerned about the possible existence in Iran of undisclosed nuclear related activities involving military related organizations, including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile.”

In support of the international community, NCRIUS released details of Iran’s illicit nuclear weapons activities at a press conference on Nov. 7, 2014.

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ISIL militants execute 300 Sunni tribesmen

noviembre 9On November 2  2014, Professor Raymond Tanter was on CCTV America.

Islamic State militants massacred Sunnis in Iraq’s western Anbar province, including dozens of women and children. At least 322 members of the Iraqi tribe died in the bloodshed with some bodies dumped in a well, according to the government.

Iraqi forces retaliated with airstrikes against ISIL targets in Anbar province. The Islamic militants are also destroying tombs, mosques and churches as they seize large areas of northwest Iraq and neighboring Syria, prompting the head of UNESCO to call on the international community to work together to preserve Iraqi cultural heritage.

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Terror tunnels and nuclear tunnels after the midterms

Hamas-Tunnel-Terrorists-3Congressional Republicans and Democrats espouse a policy toward Iran that takes Israel into account; results of the 2014 elections may induce the Obama administration to consult more with Congress and Israel; they are concerned about lack of intelligence on tunnels in Gaza and Iran.

With Iranian assistance and funding, tunnels in Gaza displayed Tehran’s efforts to threaten Israel. By secretly helping its ally, Hamas—the Islamist movement that rules Gaza, build tunnels, Iran laid a predicate for the 2014 Gaza War.

There has been a resumption of tunneling in the aftermath of fighting. Hamas officials publicly acknowledge resumption of tunnel construction. The Israeli military estimates it cost Hamas $90 million to build 32 tunnels uncovered. The average tunnel required 350 truckloads of construction supplies; contrary to using these materials in building schools, hospitals, and housing, Hamas used them for tunnels.

After the 2008 Gaza War, Iran aided rehabilitation of infrastructure damaged in the fighting. During the Muslim Brotherhood one-year rule in Egypt, 2012-2013, Iran accelerated transfer rockets to Gaza by sea, land (Sinai and Sudan), and underground tunnels from Sinai.

Another Iranian ally, Hezbollah, may have an underground tunnel network leading into Israel’s north, which could be used to conduct an enormous terror attack on residents along the Israel-Lebanon border.

In Terror Tunnels, Alan Dershowitz makes a strong case for Israel’s “just war” against Hamas. The 2014 War in Gaza required use of Israeli ground forces to gain access to the tunnels and shut them down. Israel was unable to determine their routes and exit ramps in advance because they were too deep underground and not detectable from the air.

Israeli intelligence was largely unaware that Hamas had kept secret critical details about the tunnel network; Israel relies on technologies capable of eavesdropping on telecommunications in Palestinian territories. Hamas countered by wiring its longer tunnels with cables unconnected with the local telephone grid. Such is the importance of the tunnels, Israel’s Gaza War aim changed from mainly stopping rocket attacks to principally destroying the tunnels.

Regarding nuclear tunnels, Iran hides part of its facilities in networks of underpasses and bunkers across the country. Because it is difficult to determine what part of Iran’s nuclear program is hidden, there is a need for human source intelligence to complement electronic and satellite surveillance.

In 2002, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), an opposition organization that can continue adding to the multisource basis for verification of Iran’s nuclear activities, revealed that Iran was building a secret underground nuclear plant at Natanz. Later, the Institute for Science and International Security determined it was for enriching uranium and released imagery of Natanz in December 2002.

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Gunfire exchanged between North and South Korea’s security forces

Octubre 24

On October 19 2014, Professor Raymond Tanter was on CCTV America. Security forces from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and from the Republic of Korea exchanged gunfire across the de-militarized zone.

Unlike DPRK Iran has opposition: National Council of Resistance of Iran w/ its PMOI in Camp Liberty Iraq

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US nuclear negotiations with Iran.

octubre 20Raymond Tanter appeared on Al Jazeera Arabic 20 September 2014. The topic was U.S. participation in negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file. At issue is whether this involvement may conflict with coalition-building against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Secretary Kerry had indicated “Tehran could play some role” against ISIS, even though it was not a formal party in the coalition.

Tanter spoke against the idea of approaching Tehran because the Iranian regime was responsible for the divisive policies in Iraq that created the political space for ISIS to evolve: Sunni Iraqis defected to ISIS partly due to Iranian-sponsored sectarian actions.

These Iranian efforts made it possible for ISIS to make dramatic gains in northwest Iraq. The same disruptive Iranian policies placed in even greater jeopardy members of an Iranian dissident group—People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI)/Mujahedeen-e-Khalq (MEK), trapped in prison-like conditions in Iraq.

As negotiations to build a coalition against ISIS go forward, expect enhanced efforts by Tehran to link them with hints that it would make concessions in the nuclear talks based on ISIS negotiations. Avoidance of linkage between ISIS coalition-building and the nuclear talks should be a priority of Washington.

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Professor Raymond Tanter on Bloomber TV.

bloomberg october 17On October 14 2014, Professor Raymond Tanter was on Bloomberg  TV discussing; Does U.S. Need Iran in Fight Against Islamic State?

Professor Emeritus Raymond Tanter talks with Trish Regan about the fight against the Islamic State as militants draw closer to Baghdad and the role of Iran in the battle. He speaks on “Street Smart.”

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On October 17 2014, Professor Tanter was on Bloomberg  TV discussing; Mistake to Further Inflame Relations With Iran: Sachs.

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Are U.S. Ground Troops in the Middle East Inevitable?

bloomberg september 23On September 23 2014, Professor Raymond Tanter was on Bloomberg  TV. Discussing the U.S. battle against the Islamic State military group in Syria with Trish Regan on “Street Smart.”

US Boots On Ground unnecessary for Obama  to Succeed if Arab States Keep Iran from Iraq & Help Kurds.

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